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STILL no change in variable rates...Holding Steady!



Bank of Canada keeps the overnight rate at 5%. Which for most lenders Prime rate will remain at 7.20%.

 

What is the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate?

The overnight rate is generally the interest rate that large banks use to borrow and lend from one another in the overnight market.


The Bank of Canada holds this Key Lending rate. They might lower it to encourage borrowing and spending OR they may increase it to curb inflation and debt levels.


Major lenders typically raise their prime rate when there is a hike. Thats the number they use to set interest rates for loans and mortgages.


Unlike a fixed rate where one is locked in to their rate, those in a variable rate will be affected by these changes. Home owners with fixed rate mortgages won't be affected until they have to renew.



Should I lock into a Fixed Rate now?

Historically variable rates have shown to save you more money in the long run.


A few things you should consider before locking into a Fixed rate is:

  • Are you planning to sell your home in the near future? Then we would highly recommend you stay in your variable rate mortgage.

  • Can your budget handle a payment increase if rates go up?

  • Will you be putting extra money down on your mortgage each month? If so, the savings from a variable rate can help you pay down your mortgage faster.


If you are considering locking in, give us a call to discuss first. We have a fun little calculator to help you forecast your savings if you decide to stay with your variable rate.



 

Whats to come??


Source: First National - one of Canada's largest non-bank mortgage lenders, offering both commercial mortgages and residential mortgage solutions.


Today, the Bank of Canada announced it is keeping its benchmark interest rate at 5.0%, unchanged from July of 2023.


However, much has changed in the economy and in the world since then. For evidence, we parsed today’s announcement and present a summary of the Bank’s key observations below.


Canadian Inflation

  • CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs

  • Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum

  • The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of 2024, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025


Canadian Economic Performance and Housing

  • Economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply

  • A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating

  • Economic growth is forecast to pick up in 2024. This largely reflects both strong population growth and a recovery in spending by households

  • Residential investment is strengthening, responding to continued robust demand for housing

  • The contribution to growth from spending by governments has also increased. Business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year. The Bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024

  • Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026


Global Economic Performance and Bond Yields

  • The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually

  • The US economy has “again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending.” US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January

  • The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than the Bank assumed in its January Monetary Policy Report

  • Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased

  • The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.75% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026

  • Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025


Outlook

Based on the outlook, Governing Council said it decided to hold the Bank’s policy rate at 5% and to continue to “normalize” the Bank’s balance sheet. It also noted that while inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months.


The Council said it will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. Governing Council is particularly watching the “evolution of core inflation,” and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.


As it has said consistently over the past year, the Bank will remain “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”



Stay Tuned

Next Schedule Interest Rate announcements will be June 5th, 2024





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