Bank of Canada chose NOT to increase rates today!
Bank of Canada keeps the overnight rate at 5%. Which for most lenders Prime rate will remain at 7.20%.
What is the Bank of Canada Overnight Rate?
The overnight rate is generally the interest rate that large banks use to borrow and lend from one another in the overnight market.
The Bank of Canada holds this Key Lending rate. They might lower it to encourage borrowing and spending OR they may increase it to curb inflation and debt levels.
Major lenders typically raise their prime rate when there is a hike. Thats the number they use to set interest rates for loans and mortgages.
Unlike a fixed rate where one is locked in to their rate, those in a variable rate will be affected by these changes. Home owners with fixed rate mortgages won't be affected until they have to renew.
Should I lock into a Fixed Rate now?
Historically variable rates have shown to save you more money in the long run.
A few things you should consider before locking into a Fixed rate is:
Are you planning to sell your home in the near future? Then we would highly recommend you stay in your variable rate mortgage.
Can your budget handle a payment increase if rates go up?
Will you be putting extra money down on your mortgage each month? If so, the savings from a variable rate can help you pay down your mortgage faster.
If you are considering locking in, give us a call to discuss first. We have a fun little calculator to help you forecast your savings if you decide to stay with your variable rate.
Whats to come??
Source: First National - one of Canada's largest non-bank mortgage lenders, offering both commercial mortgages and residential mortgage solutions.
Under the heading no news is good news, the Bank of Canada decided today to keep its benchmark (overnight) interest rate steady at 5.00%, putting at least a temporary hold on a policy that resulted in 10 increases stretching back to March 2022.
At the Bank’s last meeting in July, it raised the rate 0.25% due to what it said was evidence of more persistent excess demand and elevated core inflation.
Today’s announcement from the Bank struck a similar tone but with a different outcome. We highlight its latest observations below:
Canadian housing and economic performance
Canada’s economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which the Bank says “is needed to relieve price pressures”
Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate, reflecting “a marked weakening” in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country
Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers
Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment
“Tightness” in the labour market has continued to ease gradually, but wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%
Inflation facts and outlook
Recent Consumer Price (CPI) data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad based
After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Bank’s projection
With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be “higher in the near term” before easing again
Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation
The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability
Global economic indicators
Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China
With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished
In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending
In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing
Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
Summary and outlook
In summarizing today’s decision, the Bank said “with recent evidence that excess demand in the economy is easing,” and given the lagged effects of monetary policy, Governing Council decided to hold its policy interest rate at 5% and continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet.
However, the Bank also noted that it remains concerned about the “persistence of underlying inflationary pressures,” and is prepared to “increase the policy interest rate further if needed.”
Governing Council noted it will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, it noted it will evaluate whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behavior are consistent with achieving the Bank’s 2% inflation target.
Once again, the Bank repeated its mantra of remaining “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.“
Stay tuned
Please circle October 25th, 2023 on your calendar as the date of the Bank’s next scheduled policy rate announcement. We will follow that decision closely with an executive summary the same day.
